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Investigators probing October's Bali bomb blasts have reached new and startling conclusions about the two explosions in Kuta that claimed 193 lives. Previously they thought one or both of the blasts were set off by a remote-controlled device, most likely a mobile phone. But TIME has learned that investigators now believe both explosions were probably set off by suicide bombers. Sources familiar with the investigation say the main bomb—up to 100 kilos of explosives packed into a Mitsubishi minivan—was most likely detonated by a suicide bomber who was inside the vehicle.

Police had previously identified an Indonesian named Iqbal as the likely carrier of the smaller bomb, which ripped through Paddy's Irish Pub 21 seconds before the main blast outside the Sari Club across the street. But investigators now believe he was responsible for detonating the bigger bomb outside the Sari Club, and not for the smaller blast. "He could have been sitting there in the van with people pouring out of the Sari Club, even staring in the windows, when he set it off," says a source close to the investigation.

Who, then, was the second bomber—the killer responsible for the smaller bomb at Paddy's? Strangely, he has also been identified as "Iqbal," though police have dubbed him "Jim" to avoid confusion. Based on eyewitness testimony from a waitress at the bar, investigators had previously theorized that the Paddy's bomb went off prematurely and was not a true suicide attack. Four months into the investigation they have revised their opinions: "All forensic evidence now points strongly to the Paddy's bomb having been a suicide," the source says.

The bomb, he adds, was carried in a tartan backpack—fragments of which have been recovered—and was almost certainly detonated while still on its bearer's back. The gruesome evidence for this scenario includes the bomber's remains—two legs cut off at the knees and a face sufficiently intact to allow police artists to draw a likeness—and spatterings of his blood on the roof of the bar.

A captured member of Jemaah Islamiah, the regional network of Islamic militants blamed for the Bali attack, told investigators that the group began planning strikes more than a year ago on "soft" targets such as bars, restaurants and clubs frequented by foreigners. The specter of a war in Iraq brings with it the very real possibility that JI and its like-minded terrorist brethren will ratchet up such operations. This makes the conclusion that the Bali blasts were probably triggered by Southeast Asia's first known suicide bombers "highly alarming" given the challenges presented by terrorists willing to die, says one regional intelligence source. "As the Israelis know from bitter experience, there's almost nothing you can do about small-scale suicide attacks like [at] Paddy's."

• Simon Elegant
• New evidence points to suicide bombers in October's deadly Bali attacks